Sunday, June 23, 2013

A simple question


At Interfluidity, Mark A. Sadowski summarizes Mason and Jayadev (2012):

They find that whereas the household sector borrowed heavily in the 1946-64 period, and more often borrowed than not in the 1965-80 period, the household sector ran a primary surplus throughout the 1981-99 period with the sole exception of 1985. Only more recently, during 2000-2006 did the household sector borrow heavily again. Nevertheless, household sector debt as a percent of disposable personal income rose substantially during 1981-99 due to high real effective interest rates and low rates of growth in nominal income.

> the household sector ran a primary surplus throughout the 1981-99 period

> household sector debt as a percent of disposable personal income rose substantially during 1981-99

Don't these facts suggest that household sector debt was already too high by 1981?

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